Why Donald Trump's near assassination could help win him the US election

Significant moments in an election campaign can have a lasting impact at the polls and the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump may have helped him ahead of the US presidential election.

While the election isn't until November 5, it will be hard for voters to forget the image of the former president's response to his near-death experience as he immediately raised his fist in the air and exclaimed the word "fight" to his supporters.

The 78-year-old was shot in the upper part of his right ear and he appeared to be bleeding from this area when he was whisked away by Secret Service agents at his campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday.

There has been a divide in the people who see Saturday's events as improving Trump's chances in November, and those who don't think it will make a significant difference.

Ian Bremmer is president of political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group. He said, via Fortune, that “It makes it more likely that Trump wins” as Trump's reaction “is the opposite of frail".

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However, Cornell Belcher, who is a pollster who worked for former President Barack Obama, believes it won't make a big difference in swing voters.

“Does that moderate, suburban, college-educated mom who is worried about how to pay for college for her daughter and whether her daughter will have as many rights in her life as she has had in hers — does the shooting make her go, ‘Oh, my God! I’m going to vote for Trump!’ No,” he told NBC.

So how could this moment impact the US elections?

History

We only need to look at history to see how an assassination attempt on a presidential candidate can give a boost in the polls.

For example, when former Republican president Ronald Reagan was shot and wounded back in 1981, he received an eight-point boost in the polls when he was freshly elected into the White House.

Trump's campaign message

This assassination attempt on Trump feeds into his campaign message where he has claimed people in power don't want to see him return to the White House – everyone from federal prosecutors, judges, election officials, rival politicians, and journalists.

Although these claims have been disputed and dispelled, this attempt on Trump's life proves that there are people out there who want him dead to prevent him from becoming president for a second time.

Trump's response to the assassination attempt

Following the events, Trump didn't make the entire thing about himself and instead praised the Secret Service for their response and also gave his sympathy to the two other victims of the attack.

"I want to thank The United States Secret Service, and all of Law Enforcement, for their rapid response on the shooting that just took place in Butler, Pennsylvania," Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social.

"Most importantly, I want to extend my condolences to the family of the person at the Rally who was killed, and also to the family of another person that was badly injured. It is incredible that such an act can take place in our Country."

The next day Trump put up a post where he thanked everyone for their well wishes and urged supporters to "FEAR NOT" and said it was "God alone who prevented the unthinkable from happening".

In what was a stark contrast to previously urging his supporters to march on the Capitol on January 6, Trump sought to unify with his words.

"In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win. I truly love our Country."

These words may strike a chord with undecided voters - about 20 per cent of voters say they have not picked a candidate in this year's presidential race, are leaning toward third-party options or might not vote at all in the Nov. 5 election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Democrats rallying around Joe Biden

Before the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, it was President Joe Biden who was grabbing the headlines for all the wrong reasons as people have questioned whether the 81-year-old is fit to run for office once again.

There had been calls for Biden to step down after his disastrous performance in the first presidential debate on June 27, and let a younger candidate run as the Democratic nominee.

At the NATO summit last week, Biden made a series of verbal slip-ups including when he mistakenly referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin."

But now, Trump's attempted assassination has halted the momentum for the coup against Biden as Democrats seek to unite while Biden deals with this crisis.

“I think it’s over,” a Biden ally told NBC News. “You just lose all momentum.”

In an address to the nation on the matter, Biden said: “There’s no place in America for this kind of violence; it’s sick, it’s sick.”

Then, returning to one of the foundational themes dating to when he first ran for office in 2019, he said: “It’s one of the reasons why we have to unite this country.”

With all these different factors considered, we'll have to wait and see if the attempted assassination of Trump affects the decision of voters come election day.

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