How an 'October surprise' will affect the US election, according to presidential 'Nostradamus'

A pollster nicknamed “Nostradamus” due to his accurate predictions says an “October surprise” will not change his prediction for the US election result in which he believes Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump.

Dr. Allan Lichtman, a US university professor has correctly (and impressively) predicted nine of the last 10 US elections outcomes since 1984.

Back in September, he said Harris will beat former President Trump on November 5 as she has the advantage in eight of the 13 factors which the professor and historian examines in his forecasting method he and Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Boro came up with in 1981 known as “The Keys to the White House”.

Some of these different factors include the party mandate, a strong domestic economy both in the short-term and long-term, no scandal or social unrest, and no foreign or military failure.

But with just under a month until election day, some have questioned whether an “October surprise” – a last-minute news story of a scandal or revelation that breaks less than 30 days before the election - could still impact the result.

Dr. Allan Lichtman (middle) believes an "October surprise" will not affect the outcome of the upcoming US election and has predicted Kamala Harris (left) will win over Donald Trump (right).Photo by Jim Vondruska/Getty Images, Photo by PEDRO UGARTE/AFP via Getty Images, and Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

Though Dr. Lichtman doesn’t think so as he declared this to be a “myth”.

“One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise,” he told CNN’s Michael Smerconish on SiriusXM.

“I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise because the keys gauged the big picture of incumbent governance in strength and don’t sway by the events of the campaign.”

We only need to look back to 2016 to see that Lichtman is proven correct.

During this election year, there was an infamous “October surprise” in the form of an “Access Hollywood” tape that was leaked to the Washington Post. In the 2005 clip, Trump makes shocking remarks about women.

“I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything … Grab ’em by the p***y. You can do anything,” Trump told TV host Billy Bush.

Despite this coming out just before the election, Trump still went on to win and become president – which Lichtman correctly predicted.

As it stands, both Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in recent polls as Harris narrowly leads Trump by 49.3–46.2, according to analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, as per The Conversation.

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