Will Gibraltar and the Falklands be ‘gone by Christmas’ following the Chagos Islands sovereignty deal?

As Conservative and Reform UK politicians continue to fume over the UK Government agreeing to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius (even though negotiations actually began under Rishi Sunak’s administration), concerns are being raised around whether the decision could pave the way for Gibraltar to be handed to Spain or the Falklands to Argentina.

In a joint statement from the UK and Mauritian governments shared on Thursday (October 3), the two states hailed the “historic political agreement” as a “seminal moment in our relationship”.

“In resolving all outstanding issues between the United Kingdom and Mauritius, the treaty will open a new chapter in our shared history, one which will continue to be based on mutual respect and trust as close Commonwealth partners committed to the security and prosperity of the Indian Ocean Region,” they said.

The deal also honours a ruling from the International Court of Justice in 2019, which said "the process of decolonisation of Mauritius was not lawfully completed when that country acceded to independence in 1968" and that the UK is "under an obligation to bring to an end its administration of the Chagos Archipelago as rapidly as possible".

Nevertheless, current and former MPs have decided to criticise Labour for the decision, with former defence secretary Grant Shapps asking on Twitter/X: “How will this capitulation help when it comes to protecting other British assets like Gibraltar, the Falkland Islands and our two sovereign bases in Cyprus – all of which face varying levels of sovereignty challenge?”

Meanwhile Rupert Lowe, the Reform UK MP for Great Yarmouth, commented: “Speaking to contacts in Gibraltar, they are incredibly concerned following the Chagos Islands capitulation – ‘the thin end of the wedge’.

“The message is loud and clear – this Labour government is a disgrace.”

More generally, other social media users have expressed fears the two overseas territories are at risk, with some declaring both Gibraltar and the Falklands will be “gone by Christmas”.

Except senior officials in both territories have dismissed concerns over sovereignty, with Falklands governor Alison Blake saying in a statement the “historical contexts” surrounding the Chagos and Falkland Islands “are very different”.

“UK ministers have been very clear throughout the process that the UK will not agree to anything that runs the risk of jeopardising sovereignty in other Overseas Territories," she said.

“The UK government remains committed to defending the Falkland Islanders’ right of self-determination, and the UK’s unwavering commitment to defend UK sovereignty remains undiminished."

In remarks similar to Blake’s, the government of Gibraltar said “the situation in [the British Indian Ocean Territory] and Gibraltar are completely different”.

Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister, commented: “The key thing for people to note is how different the case of the Chagos Islands is from the case of the inalienable right of the People of Gibraltar to decide our future and the future of our land, Gibraltar.

“The United Kingdom challenged Spain to take matters to the ICJ and Spain refused. If she took up the case, she would lose.

“Gibraltar is an inhabited territory, the population of which has rights which cannot be ignored in any circumstances and which entirely trump any other purported claims to our land and surrounding seas, as recognised under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

“The United Kingdom has made clear that it will not enter into arrangements under which the people of Gibraltar would pass under the sovereignty of another state against their freely and democratically expressed wishes and also reaffirms at the United Nations and elsewhere that it will not enter into a process of sovereignty negotiations with which Gibraltar is not content.”

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