Historian who correctly predicted almost every US election since 1984 gives Harris vs Trump verdict

A renowned American historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every US presidential race for the past 40 years has shared his current verdict on the 2024 election.

Allan Lichtman developed a formula known as the “Keys to the White House”, that he claims offers a strong indication of who will stand victorious in the polls.

The so-called “keys” consist of 13 true-or-false questions to be posed about the two competing candidates; in this case, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

If a question yields a “true” answer, the candidate is given a “key” and, if “false”, their rival gets the point.

Whichever candidate receives six or more “keys” becomes the predicted winner.

The keys are as follows:

1. Party mandate
2. Contest
3. Incumbency
4. Third party
5. Short-term economy
6. Long-term economy
7. Policy change
8. Social unrest
9. Scandal
10. Foreign/military failure
11. Foreign/military success
12. Incumbent charisma
13. Challenger charisma

Lichtman has been correctly predicting the outcome of US elections since 1984(PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP via Getty Images)

According to Lichtman’s most recent prediction, as reported by the New York Post, the Democratic party – with Harris its presumed nominee – currently holds six of the 13 keys.

These include primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.

Meanwhile, the Republicans currently hold three keys: winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms; the current incumbent (Joe Biden) not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma.

Nevertheless, four keys have yet to be doled out, so Trump and his team could still turn the tides. Indeed, the Democrats need only lose three more keys to become the projected “losers,” according to the formula.

The remaining four include the “third-party” key, which Lichtman says is particularly noteworthy this year, given Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s place in the race as an independent candidate.

And the other three are for “social unrest,” “foreign/military failure” and “foreign/military success,” the Post notes.

Still, whilst a final forecast for the 2024 result is still pending, Lichtman told News Nation that he believes “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”

The renowned historian, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 and Biden in 2020, will share his ultimate prediction after the Democrats confirm their nominee at the party’s National Convention, which will run from 19 to 22 of August.

Sign up for our free Indy100 weekly newsletter

How to join the indy100's free WhatsApp channel

Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings