Who is in the coalition of the willing and what is the coalition of the unwilling

The US State Department has been somewhat reticent in formally naming the 40 or so countries it has signed up in the fight against Isis militants, who call themselves the Islamic State.

But as LSE Professor Fawaz Gerges, a specialist in Middle Eastern politics, told i100, only four really matter in the fight against the Sunni terror group: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

Saudi Arabia, which is a Sunni state, has already agreed to host a base to be used for training Syrian opposition fighters, while Turkey has said it will not allow America to use its major base at Incirlik to launch air strikes. Separately Jordan has a connection with Sunni tribes in Syria and Iraq while the United Arab Emirates has financial clout.

The Americans recognise that the most effective means to degrade and dismantle and ultimately defeat the so-called Islamic State is to build a Sunni dominated coalition of regional powers who basically have the weight and the legitimacy to convince Sunni communities in Iraq and Syria to keep their distance from Isis or stand up and take on Isis themselves.

• Professor Fawaz Gerges

Isis currently holds 49 Turkish hostages which officials have pointed to as part of Ankara's reluctance to take an active military role in the conflict. Out of 10 countries in the Middle East that pledged to support the fight against Isis in a meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Turkey notably did not sign, although Turkish officials were at the meeting.

As well as seeking the support of key Sunni states that many would see as strange bedfellows with the United States, Patrick Cockburn reports on the "un-coalition of the willing", those ready to fight Isis in Iraq and Syria who the US may not wish to formally ally themselves with. That includes Shia militias, many of whom are led and advised by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers, as well as covert cooperation with Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad.

Iran is crucial for the defence of the Baghdad government. [US secretary of state John] Kerry knows this but was grandly declaring at the weekend that Iran could not join his anti-Isis coalition.

• Patrick Cockburn

The US will also depend on help from the PYD, the Syrian Kurdish group still regarded as a terrorist organisation by America and Europe, and could also receive support from Lebabnon's Hezbollah, another terrorist organisation.

Hezbollah of Lebanon have also been central in battling the Jihadis. If [Barack] Obama and David Cameron are serious about acquiring local partners to stop Isis then they must look to the members of “un-coalition” who will do most of the fighting. It is not going to be easy.

• Patrick Cockburn

Professor Gerges explains that one reason why America would not want to actively ally itself against Iran is because they would likely help in the fight against Isis “regardless” and that any formal partnership with Shia-dominated Iran risked alienating Saudi Arabia. "Why would we bring Iran in and undermine the regional coalition, since Iran is going to do what it is going to do anyway?," he told i100.

Today John Kerry is attending a summit in Paris with some of the 20+ countries who are thought to be in the group of states who have pledged their support in the fight against the Islamic State. Those attending, according to the French government are: Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, China, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, the Netherlands, Norway, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom.

When compared to the "coalition of the willing" who came together to fight the 2003 Iraq War, one thing is clear: the Obama administration is making an active effort to build support from Arab nations. In 2003 the countries were: Afghanistan, Albania, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, El Salvador, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Hungary, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, the Netherlands, Nicaragua, the Philippines, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom and Uzbekistan.

A decade on and Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Lebanon are all new additions.

The Foreign Office told i100 it is not yet prepared to comment on who is in the new coalition of states.

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