This Jeremy Corbyn poll changes everything

A victory for Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour leadership race will reduce the party's chances of winning the next election, a poll for The Independent on Sunday reveals.

As ballot papers arrive for more than 600,000 members and supporters, the wider electorate thinks Mr Corbyn stands the least chance of returning Labour to power in 2020, the ComRes poll shows. In a dramatic twist, David Miliband, defeated by his brother in 2010, would stand the most chance of winning for Labour.

The ComRes poll finds 31 per cent of voters think that Mr Corbyn would worsen Labour’s chances if he became leader, as against 21 per cent who say he would improve them, an overall score of -10. Out of the leadership candidates, Andy Burnham is best placed to improve Labour’s chances, on +5, followed by Yvette Cooper on -3 and Ms Kendall on -6. But the potential leader with the best rating is David Miliband, who quit British politics two years ago, with an overall score of +11.

The poll finds that more than twice as many British adults think that Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister would make the state of the British economy worse rather than better (36 per cent versus 14 per cent); while three times as many think he would make Britain’s standing around the world worse rather than better (37 per cent to 11 per cent).

The only aspect that voters think would be improved under a Corbyn premiership is the railways, with 23 per cent thinking they would be better compared to with 22 per cent who think they would be worse.

The poll also gives the Conservatives an 11-point lead over Labour on general election voting intention, at with 40 per cent to 29 per cent.

Separately, the results of a survey, based on phone-bank data for one campaign and seen by The IoS, suggest that Ms Cooper is picking up support from undecided voters. The figures put Mr Corbyn on 40 per cent, with Ms Cooper second on 17 per cent, and Andy Burnham third on 15 per cent. Ms Kendall has only 7 per cent of support. Some 21 per cent said they were undecided, but the figures suggest that Mr Burnham is losing votes to Mr Corbyn and some of the undecided are switching to Ms Cooper.

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