The Tories have much more to fear from Ukip than Labour does

The Ukip threat to Labour has been overestimated and it is in fact the Conservative Party that has by far the most to worry about, a study claims.

According to the British Election Study, the threat posed by Nigel Farage's party to the Tories is twice as great as to Labour.

The project tracked 30,000 voters since 2005, and found that 80 per cent of Tory voters in 2005, who switched to Ukip in 2014, still voted for David Cameron's party in 2010.

But Labour should not be particularly celebrating the results of the study, which concluded the party had already alienated much of its traditional working class base during the Tony Blair era.

It’s the Conservative Party who need to worry most about Ukip – because those who supported Labour have in the main, already switched.

New Labour’s move to the liberal consensus on the EU and immigration in 2001, 2005 and 2010, left many of their core voters out in the cold a long time ago.

• Professor Geoff Evans of Oxford University (Nuffield College), the study’s co-director

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