Groundhog Day: New study reveals how accurate groundhog weather forecasts are

Today (February 2) is Groundhog Day in the US, the annual celebration where groundhogs make their weather forecast, and a new report has revealed just how accurate these predictions are.

Local newspapers in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania first mentioned the tradition in 1886 and it's where famous furry forecaster Punxsutawney Phil makes his annual prediction.

The rules are if the groundhog sees his shadow while perched on top of a tree trunk it means winter will continue for another six weeks, but if he doesn't see his shadow, spring will come early this year.

According to lore there is only Punxsutawney Phil who has been making the weather forecasts over the past century and this is down to him drinking “elixir of life” every summer that keeps him immortal.

Groundhog handler AJ Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil after he did not see his shadow predicting an early Spring during the 138th annual Groundhog Day festivities on Friday February 2, 2024 in Punxsutawney, PennsylvaniaPhoto by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

Thousands flock to Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, to see Phil - who you've probably seen in the 1993 film Groundhog Day - on February 2 to see what his prediction he makes.

Out of the 128 recorded predictions, Phil has seen his shadow 107 times (84 per cent of the time).

But it's not just Punxsutawney Phil, you'd be surprised at the number of weather-predicting animals across the US - but just how accurate are they?

To find this out, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) looked at groundhogs (and some alternative weather-predicting animals) across the country along with the data of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, and ranked them based on how accurate their predictions have been in the past two decades.

Sorry Punxsutawney Phil fans, but this report has found his predictions are pretty way off with an accuracy of just 35 per cent, coming seventeenth in the overall rankings.

It was the Staten Island Chuck (also known as Charles G. Hogg) who came out on top with a forecast accuracy rate of 85 per cent, followed by Georgia's General Beauregard Lee in second place at 80 per cent.

Staten Island Chuck, a groundhog who, according to tradition, looks for his shadow to predict whether or not the region will experience six more weeks of winter or the coming of spring, looks on at the Staten Island Zoo on February 2, 2015 in the Staten Island borough of New York City.Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images

in third place was Lander Lil, a Prairie Dog Statue in Wyoming and its shadow at sunrise predicts how long it will be until the arrival of spring, which had accurate rate of 75 per cent.

While you may have to take Punxsutawney Phil's with a pinch of salt, there's no denying how beloved he is as longest-running groundhog weather-forecaster.

Elsewhere, how long was Bill Murray's character trapped for in Groundhog Day? and Groundhog Day: How many years did Punxsutawney Phil correctly predict the weather?

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