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Andrew Grice (edited
Dec 10, 2014
A new poll of polls has indicated a hung parliament is increasingly likely at the next general election.
But another full-scale coalition with ministers from different parties in the event of no one party winning a majority next year is by no means a certainty.
The Conservative and Labour leaderships might consider a looser “confidence and supply” arrangement in which another party (or other parties) support the main party in key Commons votes, in return for their own policy gains.
With Ukip, the Greens and SNP all likely to pick up more seats next year, things are looking much more complicated than in May 2010...
Possible combinations:
Conservatives / Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
The leader of the DUP's eight MPs, Nigel Dodds, has been described as the "most popular man in Westminster". Reports suggest that both Labour and the Tories are trying to soften him up for next year, but a better fit would be with the Conservatives.
Likelihood: 4/5
Conservatives / DUP / Ukip
A Tory/Ukip coalition might be possible if the Tories are happy to speed up the planned EU referendum in 2017, but Ukip is more likely to maintain its place on the sidelines.
Likelihood: 1/5
Conservatives / Liberal Democrats
The current coalition will last until May and it seems that senior politicians in both parties would not be against entering a similar arrangement next year.
Likelihood: 4/5
Labour / Liberal Democrats
Relations between the two parties have been frayed since 2010 but they may work together if the numbers added up.
Likelihood: 3/5
Labour / Liberal Democrats / Greens
The surging Green party hopes to add to its single MP and is unlikely to enter coalition with the Conservatives. Instead it may enter a more liberal coalition in return for some policy concessions.
Likelihood: 3/5
Labour / Scottish National Party
The SNP could take a great number of Labour's 41 seats but the two parties could reach an agreement if Labour offers more devolved powers to Scotland. The SNP says it would not do a deal with the Conservatives.
Likelihood: 4/5
Labour / Ukip
Ukip could prop up a Labour-led coalition in theory if Ed Miliband's party dropped its opposition to an EU referendum. But in reality, the parties would disagree on too many topics and be very wary of each other.
Likelihood: 0/5
More: Traditional model of politics 'cracking apart' as hung parliament looms again
More: The Tories have much more to fear from Ukip than Labour does
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