GTA 6: 'Strong signs' Autumn 2025 release will happen says gaming expert

There are "strong signs" GTA 6 is on track to release as planned in Autumn 2025, according to a video games expert.

Rockstar Games' parent company Take-Two announced ahead of an earnings call in May last year the game would release in Autumn 2025, narrowing down the broader release window of 2025 Rockstar gave in the game's only trailer to date.

Take-Two has reassured GTA 6 is on track for this date since then, with the company confirming this ahead of its last earnings call in November.

Despite this, there have been concerns from some on social media the lack of updates on the game mean a delay is increasingly likely.

But video games expert George Osborn has noticed "strong" signs the release window continues to be on track.

Osborn is the creator of Video Games Industry Memo and the managing director of Half-Space Consulting with 15 years' experience in the industry, having also studied at the University of Cambridge.

Speaking to indy100, he said: "The clues and the hints, like Take-Two's decision to speak about GTA 6 as confidently as it has been in its financials, is not a sure sign that it's going to launch, but it's a pretty strong one.

"If you think a game is going to slip, you probably want to get people pricing it in before entering the financial year.

"And if there was more concern, I think expectations would have been managed a bit more carefully.

"Strauss Zelnick, CEO at Take-Two, was talking at the end of December about how the game is going to be phenomenal and if I'm in the PR of those businesses and talking about transparency, I probably wouldn't allow my top executive go out and talk so confidently about that unless that window is made."

However that's not to say Autumn 2025 is definitely nailed on.

"But on the other side of the fence, Jason Schreier, who is one of the best connected games journalists in the world, his prediction for 2025 is the release will slip into next year," Osborn added.

"I think that was based on two things - some reporting last year that people internally were concerned it would slip and also Rockstar has changed its working practices in a good way to be less reliant on things like crunch culture.

"There is still a chance it could go [back to 2026] but I would say the safe money is on an Autumn release and by Autumn I think it would be October or November.

"It could be September as that's when GTA 5 launched but I feel October or November would be a more realistic window, especially if there is concern there is a bit more work needed to get it over the line."

Video games expert George Osborn agrees GTA 6 is currently dictating the entire industry / Image from Rockstar Games

There have been a number of reports that GTA 6 is dictating the games industry as a whole - Osborn agreed, explained why and predicted what's likely to happen next.

"At the beginning of the year, you always see a lot of games without a specific release date and I think after the New Year, people check in to see how development work has been going, people look at it and ask what a realistic date to launch it is," he said.

"They'll also start looking at the rest of the industry calendar and start thinking about a space for their release.

"There are things people deliberately avoid across the year, like no-one launches a new game in Black Friday week because that's the time old ones are being sold, the new Call of Duty will be avoided as they won't want to be going up against that.

"I have noticed there is a significant number of games, specifically major ones, that don't have specific release date at the moment.

"I think that is a sign GTA 6 is essentially calling the shots of the industry for a decent period of time.

"What I expect to see happen is some games will start announcing release dates but a lot will try and hold fire for as long as possible [to announce] when it's coming out and if it's coming out this year at all.

"I think most businesses will be saying at least a few weeks either side of release, you want to be completely avoiding, maybe a full month, maybe more.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see a number of games slip into next year if GTA 6 does land in that Autumn window, companies might be thinking about preferring for the enormous hype to pass through, allow everyone to buy it, play it, enjoy it and then maybe when people are spending less time in the online mode or less time with the story because it's complete, they're ready to come back to something else.

"I think it is dictating the industry at this moment in time but it's almost like a shadowboxing exercise - everyone is waiting for Rockstar to say more, work out when it will be and plan their year around that."

There may be an update on GTA 6 sooner than you think / Image from Rockstar Games

2024 was an incredibly quiet year on the GTA 6 front in terms of official updates - while there's been loads of speculation and rumour, there was absolutely nothing from Rockstar.

Despite the quiet year, Osborn explained why there could be an update sooner rather than later from Rockstar.

He said: "It's an interesting situation for Rockstar as it's been so long since they last released anything, Red Dead Redemption 2 came out seven years ago now in 2018 and GTA 5 had a 2013 launch.

"The way games are promoted has changed quite significantly and instead of it being about a media strategy, it's now more about what they're doing with influencers, forging those relationships.

"Working with influencers rather than media is a bit easier as there are all kinds of people that are organically interested but then commercial partnerships can be forged with people who have big audiences.

"Developers can then dictate terms more and it gives them a bit more room in terms of holding their cards.

"But I think if I'm in Rockstar's position, you don't want to leave it too late, you don't want to do a full Beyonce and just drop it unexpectedly, even though I would be fascinated to see what would happen if they did that, but you want to build up as much momentum as possible.

"There was a forecast the game could reach $1billion in pre-orders and I think that's reasonable, GTA 5 did $1billion in its opening weekend.

"Considering how much money Rockstar will have almost certainly invested into developing this, if there is a point where you can announce it earlier just to start getting that pre-order cash on the board... This game will be almost certainly a titanic cultural and commercial success but when you are talking about development budgets, which people are rumouring are upwards to $1billion, it's quite reassuring to get it out there, get the opportunity for people to click pre-order and have that money coming in.

"I would expect them to be rolling the pitch a bit earlier, it's just a question of when.

"The latest time would be June, around Summer Game Fest, because that would be a natural window of three or four months to lead up to it.

"But I think Rockstar has so much power, it can do this on its own terms."

Osborn'sVideo Games Industry Memo is sent out every Thursday and he's writing his debut non-fiction book called Power Play, a look at how video games are changing the world.

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