GTA 6 'could save the gaming industry' says expert

A video games expert thinks "GTA 6 might be the game to save the gaming industry" because of its expected popularity, the sheer amount of money that's gone into it and market trends it is likely to show when released in 2025.

GTA 6 is fast becoming the most highly anticipated game of all time - and it's not out for at least another eight months.

Fans of the franchise will have been made to wait 12 years for the latest instalment since GTA 5.

Given 2024 is expected to be a quiet year for the gaming industry, one expert thinks GTA 6 can help save it.

GTA 6 will be set in Leonida, a fictional version of FloridaRockstar Games

George Osborn is the creator of Video Games Industry Memo and the managing director of Half-Space Consulting with 15 years' experience in the industry having also studied at the University of Cambridge.

When asked by Indy100 about just how big the release of GTA 6 will be, George said: "GTA 6 might be the game to save the games industry, it's the game to restore confidence in it.

"It's a phenomenon, it's not just a video game - it's a culture-defining force.

"GTA 5 has basically been in the best-selling UK charts since it launched, it's still pretty much in there now and it's 11 years since it happened.

"You are talking about a game that's generated the best part of $10 billion over that lifespan and it is something that's so representative of what people think about in terms of video games."

GTA 6 has a female protagonist for the first timeRockstar Games

Because of the hype and buzz around the game, George also agrees Rockstar and GTA 6 are currently dictating the market.

"People are already factoring this into their planning - I think pretty much since the moment the trailer was announced and people started to peg some point in 2025, plans have been changing," he said.

"The biggest thing for most of the industry is running for cover to make sure you are not releasing anything in that week at all if you can avoid it and even the weeks around it.

"The sheer volume of interest in that trailer sucked the entire oxygen out of the industry discussion, it was just one thing and nothing else got through.

"People will be thinking about trying to catch the wave, such as influencers planning to be the person that stands out playing GTA, or maybe even games feeling distinct from it, like when Animal Crossing and Doom launched together at the start of the pandemic, it was like Barbenheimer.

"GTA 6 is steadily dictating the market in that regard."

Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 1www.youtube.com

On the other hand, because of this and the sheer amount of money that's gone into its development, George thinks there is huge pressure for Rockstar to get the game absolutely spot on.

"It's probably going to be an enormous hit and success because so many people want to go and play it - and it has to be," he said.

"Reports indicate that it has a budget that's close to or around $1 billion - Red Dead Redemption 2 was reportedly somewhere north of $500 million.

"This game has to be a big hit simply because it's just going to have to be to earn its way."

GTA 6 will be incredibly detailedRockstar Games

George thinks how GTA 6 performs commercially and its popularity will give a big indication as to what the future holds for the industry.

"It's going to be a bellwether for what the future of the industry looks like," he said.

"When GTA 5 launched, it made $1 billion in traditional box sales on opening weekend but the way it's made most of its money is through its online mode.

"It was the game that conquered the online multiplayer space.

"There was a recent report from data analytics firm Newzoo about the state of the console and PC market and it found roughly 60 per cent of playtime on all video games on console and PC now goes to games that are more than six years old.

"It's going to things like Fortnite, GTA Online and even platforms like Roblox which are eating up the market.

"You are being constantly entertained by this new content that's being provided by the developer to change the way you play in interesting ways allowing you to express yourself and if you find a game you like to play, a space you like to hang out in and that's where all your friends are, that's where you're going to stay.

"Games with online now have to become the new place people want to hang out and developers have to look at how to do that."

The success of GTA 6 might not be as guaranteed as some thinkRockstar Games

George says this is why GTA 6 has challenges to be successful.

He said: "GTA 6 needs to be a big hit through traditional release, you pay your £60/£70 and that's that but it also has to be big enough to go and eat into the space of established games already and as we'e seen in the market, there's not been that much room for new entries apart from things like Helldivers 2.

"Another challenge it has is encouraging people to come over from GTA 5 because people have been playing that game for years and have invested a lot of money into it.

"It's going to be one of those games that has to be a real hit in its own right and its level of success is going to tell us a lot about what console and PC is going to be looking like as a market for the next five-to-10 years."

George'sVideo Games Industry Memo is sent out every Thursday.

How to join the indy100's free WhatsApp channel

Sign up to our free indy100 weekly newsletter

Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.